Fed's mouthpiece says July FOMC meeting is the hardest to predict in years as oil rebound, tariff risks, and hawkish dissent challenge rate hold consensus.

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The Federal Reserve's July policy meeting is shaping up to be the most unpredictable in years, according to Nick Timiraos, a journalist often seen as the Fed's mouthpiece. In a report published on July 23, Timiraos highlighted that a rebound in oil prices, rising risks from US tariff policies, and a shift by some officials toward supporting rate hikes are challenging the consensus to hold rates steady. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on July 28-29, with markets widely expecting the central bank to maintain its policy rate at the current range of 3.50% to 3.75%. However, the outcome of the meeting is unlikely to end internal debates, as some officials are already laying the groundwork for further rate increases later this year. At previous meetings, the 18 Fed officials were sharply divided on whether rate hikes would be necessary this year, with half expecting hikes and the other half seeing no need for adjustments. Jonathan Pingle, chief US economist at UBS, noted that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh could be the key figure in determining the policy direction.