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US Treasury yields surged to their highest levels this year as oil prices climbed on escalating Middle East tensions, with markets now pricing in a potential Federal Reserve rate hike as soon as next week. The two-year Treasury yield, which is highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations, rose about 4 basis points on Thursday to approximately 4.34%, its highest since early 2025. The 10-year yield hit a new 2026 high, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.19%, just below levels not seen since 2007. Brent crude oil is slowly recovering toward $100 per barrel after Houthi rebels claimed their first attack on a commercial vessel in months. The oil price surge continues to pressure the Treasury market, leading traders to increasingly expect that the Fed, under Kevin Warsh, will raise rates soon this year.
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