Polymarket odds for WTI crude hitting $95/barrel in July surge to 48%, up 20% in 24 hours, as US B-1 bombers strike Iran's Revolutionary Guard targets.

Details

Prediction market Polymarket shows a sharp rise in the probability of WTI crude oil breaking $95 per barrel in July, now at 48%, up 20% in the past 24 hours. The probability of hitting $100 per barrel also climbed to 32%, a 14% increase over the same period. The surge follows reports that the US has deployed B-1 bombers to strike targets of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, marking a significant escalation in military operations. The US has been reinforcing its military presence in the region, and former President Trump has previously threatened to bomb Iranian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if Iran attacks vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. These developments have heightened geopolitical risk, driving speculative bets on higher oil prices. Traders should monitor further military actions and potential supply disruptions, as any escalation could trigger sharp intraday volatility in crude oil markets.