Investors bet oil will be cheaper in a few months despite war, expecting Trump to ease Iran tensions before midterms.

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Despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East, futures markets indicate that investors expect oil prices to decline in the coming months. The prevailing sentiment is that the Trump administration will seek to de-escalate tensions with Iran, driven by low inventories and the approaching midterm elections. This political pressure is seen as a catalyst for a softer stance on Iran, which could increase global oil supply and push prices lower. The market is pricing in a near-term peak, with futures contracts suggesting a downward trajectory later this year. Traders are closely watching for any diplomatic signals from Washington that could confirm this expected policy shift. For speculative intraday trading, this creates a potential for volatility around any news related to Iran negotiations or inventory reports.